What are Your Odds?

Let’s have a look at this god-tier math puzzle. Only one out of seven gets it right, and the other six don’t. So, what are the odds for solving it correctly? 1 to 6. Generally, if \(p\) is the probability that someone will get it right, then his/her odds are \(p/(1-p)\).

However, it isn’t necessarily true that \(p=1/7\) for every person because some people are smarter, some have better education and so on. Hence, \(p\) also depends on the person attempting the puzzle. In a Bayesian framework, we capture this dependence with conditional probability.

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